A warning to everyone who thinks that covid-19 is already over

The stock and bond markets have rallied incredibly, since the worldwide decline in March. However, if you take a closer look at the situation and analyze it, you are amazed whether this rally was justified. (probably mainly by the protection and support of the central banks)

But this is a personal opinion, as we know that asset prices arise from supply and demand.


However, if we look at the development of the number of cases over the past few days and weeks, we find very worrying trends, especially in the economy number one, the US economy. Spiking case numbers in states like California, Florida and Texas are the new reality.

It will be interesting to see how the individual states will react to the increasing trend in the number of cases in the coming week, although some states have already announced that they will slow down their re-opening approaches.

source Johns Hopkins university



But there is also encouraging data among the increasing number of cases:

The number of cases increases, but the average age of the sick continues to decrease and thus the death rate.

data US only, source Topol



It is also evident worldwide that hard handling to contain the virus has had the best success. Examples include Europe or the state of New York within the US.

(source Johns Hopkins university and bloomberg)



As you can see by these examples, it is quite possible to contain the virus over a longer period of time. Time will tell whether this trend continues or if we could even see a second lockdown in some areas of the world. (which would be pretty harmful to their economies and the worldwide economic growth)


Successful containment and tracing will be the key to flattening the curve for a second time.

But here it probably is, the second wave of covid-19.