Just some thoughts about the current market situation

Let me start with the statement that we are currently in one of the most exciting times I have ever seen (at the young age of 21).

The real economy and the stock market have completely decoupled and the stock exchange prices are only composed of a combination of stimulus hope, FED liquidity, ultra low interest rates and institutional investors who clearly missed the rally.

Unemployment and longer term bankruptcies of many small and medium sized businesses are simply overlooked. And Emerging markets get the financial effects of the covid-crisis as hardest to feel. (but literally nobody talks about that yet)

But as I say every time something good, bad or new happens: It is what it is.

I trade what I see and not what I think might could happen.


It's definitely okay to look around and observe what other people, investors or traders think.

I do the same with my Twitter channel. But if it comes to putting your own money at risk, you should be able to trace the decisions you have made back to your own analyzes. A very big mistake often made by retail investors or even by some of the Pros is to wait till everyone thinks it's time. It's never the right time to buy or sell if you collect all data and statistics based on the actual market environment. Probably this is also the reason why "the dumb money" was able to participate on the whole market rally, while professional investors and traders (including me) had to face a reality check to get whats really going on right now.

The good thing about working as a trader is that you don't always have to be right to be good. I've been wrong hundreds of times in this early stage of my career, but that's part of it.


Right now it looks like anyone can make money out of the stock market. First of all, that's a good thing for everyone who participates in it.

Historically, however, that was never a good thing, as the overheating of the market often resulted in a crash just around the corner. That doesn't have to be the case this time, but to be honest, I don't care at all because I'm prepared 24/7, I don't trade equities mainly and I'm able to participate from the market development regardless of whether the respective market rises, falls or stagnates.

I don't want to praise myself endlessly, because almost everyone is able to acquire this knowledge independently and to gain practical experience in the real world of finance, if they are willing to spend the time on it.


If you haven't had a plan from the beginning, you wont have one when it counts.

I really believe in the theory that discipline and the willingness to work can move mountains.

But for that you have to go all the way.

If you don't want to do that on your own, you're left with two other options:

  1. Invest into the broader market, but don't expect higher returns than the mean

  2. Give your money to an investor, NOT an advisor (you know and you trust) who knows what he or she's doing and achieve more than the average investor

At the end here are some additional graphics/statistics I found helpful in the last week.

If it comes to trade the broader market, like futures on the Nasdaq or S&P, I will only take short signals through the months till November, until we get to the election date in the US, where I will switch to a positive basic attitude towards the broad market (according to the current status)


WHY GOLD IS STILL CHEAP AND A BUY IN THE LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE (>6MONTHS)


THE EU DEAL WAS GREAT BUT ITS NOT THE MAIN REASON FOR ITS STRENGTH AGAINST THE USD

ANOTHER MARKET CYCLE FORECAST BASED ON HISTORIC DATA INDICATES WEAKNESS



© 2021 by Lukas Kuemmerle

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