COT indicates dollar weakness

The COT report showed a momentum change and indicates a possible change of the trend.

It looks like the dollar index (DXY) could switch into at least a short term bearish weakness phase.

For the first time since May 2018 there were more commercial buyers of the DXY than large speculators, as you can see clearly in the graphic below. This usually indicated a short weakness or consolidation in the USD in the past.

source barchart

Let's see how this will play out in the near term future. We see a better covid-19 dynamic in Europe and other parts of the world than in the US.

In the past the USD was the safe haven currency when there was short term panic or fear in the market. But this could change with a stronger AUD and EUR, if we see their economies recover faster from the covid-19 shock as the US.

A big factor will also play China, especially with the high correlation between CNY and AUD.

But this is no forecast, I trade what I see, not what I think.